Poker Master: Re: [vpFREE] Losing $1 for every tier credit on a 99% machine :(

Harry, how can you do worse on a game, when the only difference is that you get paid more for a royal flush? In the 99.0% and 98.6% versions of DJ you have the same probability of getting each kind of hand. And you collect the same payoff for all hands below a RF. But you collect 200 more units on a RF in the 99.0% game.

The bigger variance of the 99% DJ game might have an impact on losses if the big royal payoff caused strategy changes that lessened the chance of hitting other hands. But I used the hand frequencies for 98.6% DJ that I got from WizOfOdds, and simply changing the RF payout from 800 to 1000 produces a 99.0% game. So, if there are strategy changes, they can be safely ignored.

--Dunbar

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <harry.porter@...> wrote :

Haven't look at details, but I'm going to guess that the 99.0% game has a much stronger variance (think 8/5 BP vs 9/6 DDB). Are you secure in your take on the relative loss potential?

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <h_dunbar@...> wrote :

Thanks, Harry. I looked for it at WizOfOdds but couldn't find it. Should've checked vpFREE2.

That 99% pay table makes the chance of losing $2K a tiny bit smaller. The difference between 99.0% and 98.6% amounts to an $80 difference in EV at the end of $20,000 of coin-in. So it's not going to have much impact on one's chance of losing $2000.

--Dunbar

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <harry.porter@...> wrote :

99% DJ paytable in question is 1/1/4/6/8/10/25/50/100/1000 (var akin to ddb)

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <h_dunbar@...> wrote :

Assuming that...

1. "99% Double Joker" is the 98.6% pay table, and

2. no errors were made in play...

then losing $2000 in $20K coin-in at a 25c game is way worse than 2 standard deviations. It's about a 0.04% event, 1 in 2500.

If you assume that errors costing 0.2% of EV were made, the chance of losing $2K is still only about 1 in 1600. And even if mistakes totaling 0.6% of EV were made (turning it into a 98% game), the chance of losing $2K is still 1 in 670, or about 3 standard deviations.

Like you, I can't answer the original poster's question without more specific parameters.

--Dunbar

(Calcs were done using Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker 2.0)

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Posted by: h_dunbar@hotmail.com