Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Re: [vpFREE] Losing $1 for every tier credit on a 99% machine :(



99% DJ paytable in question is 1/1/4/6/8/10/25/50/100/1000  (var akin to ddb)


---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <h_dunbar@...> wrote :

Assuming that...

1. "99% Double Joker" is the 98.6% pay table, and
2. no errors were made in play...

then losing $2000 in $20K coin-in at a 25c game is way worse than 2 standard deviations.   It's about a 0.04% event, 1 in 2500.

If you assume that errors costing 0.2% of EV were made, the chance of losing $2K is still only about 1 in 1600.  And even if mistakes totaling 0.6% of EV were made (turning it into a 98% game), the chance of losing $2K is still 1 in 670, or about 3 standard deviations.

Like you, I can't answer the original poster's question without more specific parameters.

--Dunbar

(Calcs were done using Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker 2.0)





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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net


vpFREE Links: http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1955/20228/V/Links.htm






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