Re: [vpFREE] Re: An Old War Horse

Soltris, yes the money rolls over when the meter caps at $800 and I'll give an example. I rarely have a losing day but every once in a while it happens. I have to explain the game first, so those of you that get bored with math just skip over it.

Its a $1 keno progressive. The game has been out for about 4 years and I've only gotten maybe 70 plays on it because it is hard to find a playable number.

You can play anywhere from two to ten numbers. The best payscale is the 3-spot. It pays 1 bet for 2 out of 3 and 26 bets for 3 out of 3. That's a 49.95% return.

There is something else going on in the game. While you are playing your numbers the machine makes five picks. This is very important. There are two meters on the game and both of them have to do with the five machine picks. There is the 4 out of 5 meter. Any time 3 of the 5 machine picks hit it puts 1 bet into the 4 out of 5 meter. When you hit 4 out of 5 machine picks you get the money in the meter plus an extra 10 bets.

Since the frequency for 3 out of 5 is 11.91 it is equivelent to an 8.4% progressive meter. Since the frequency for 4 out of 5 is 82.7 the extra 10 bets is worth 12.09%. So adding that to the 49.95% we are now up to 70.4363%.

Now for the 5 out of 5 meter. Any time you hit 3 out of 5 it puts 2 bets in the 5 out of 5 meter. This is equivelent to a 16.7926% meter.

Any time you hit 4 out of 5 it puts 3 bets in the 5 out of 5 meter. This is equivalent to a 3.6276% meter.

So we have a 5 out of 5 meter that is equivalent to 20.4202%. How do you like that for meter strength, folks? So now we have the game up to 90.8565% over all payback.

The cost to run one cycle is easy to calculate. We just discount out the 5 out of 5 meter and we are taking a 29.5637% drop between 5 out of 5 hits. It a $1 bet game and the frequency of 5 out of 5 is 1550.57.

So 1550.57 * 29.5636% = $458

In one cycle you are expected to put $316 in the 5 out of 5 meter.

1550.57 * 20.4202% = $316

I vulture this game so I'm looking to find a game where the ploppies left at least $260 in the meter.

$260 + 316 = $576

So $576 minus the cost, $458, makes this play worth $118. The game plays at 40 games per minute so the average seat time to hit the 5 out of 5 is about 40 minutes. So my time in a minimum play spot is worth at least $180 an hour.

Except....there is the variable in all this called the capped meter ($800). Its hard for me to quantify but I know the average cost is a little higher because of the capped meter. At $260 the meter will cap in about 1.7 cycles. So if I run badly on a play I know I can get my clock cleaned. But the money will roll over into the next progressive if I get in the cap trap.

I ran pretty good at this game through my first 60 plays. Every play was a winner except 2, and they were just small losses. But one day last year I ran into a nightmare play which I will explain in my next post.


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Posted by: mickeycrimm@yahoo.com
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