Wednesday, July 11, 2012

[vpFREE] Re: another progressive question

I used to play the quarter 9/6 Jacks progressives at the Cal-Neva. The bartops in the Virginian and the Keno Lounge had 1.5% meters. The bartops in the Skywalk had a 2% meter. I used the strategy based on a 9200 coin royal because thats when all the pros hit the bank. I didn't concern myself with breakpoints past 9200 coins. The key breakpoints are the three-card royals over high pairs. Breakpoints past that don't do a whole lot to lower the royal odds. And I'm a big fan of the KISS principle. The math I used looked like this:

9200 coin royal = 102.598%
The royal represented 4.89% of the payback.
So I'm taking a 3.052% drop.
Cost: $1243 (1.25 X 32589 X 3.052%)
Average royal = $2911 (1.25 X 32589 X 1.5% + $2300)
Average Profit = $1668 ($2911 minus $1243)

My cruising speed is 1000 GPH. If I try to push it up to 1100 GPH I start making mistakes.

Hourly rate = $51 ($1668/32.589)

But what would the math look like if I were using min-cost? If you pull up 9/6 Jacks on the software, then punch in a 4880 coin royal and analyze it will come up exactly 100%

4880 coin royal = 100%
The royal represents 2.72% of payback.
So I'm taking a 2.72% drop
Cost = $1222 (1.25 X 35939 X 2.72%)
Average royal = $2974 (1.25 X 35939 X 1.5% + $2300)
Average Profit = $1752 ($2974 minus $1222)
Hourly rate = $48.75 ($1752/35.939)


And what if I took the meter into account and played a 98.5% strategy?

1570 coin royal = 98.5%
The royal represents .63% of the payback
So I'm taking a 2.13% drop
Cost = $1333 (1.25 X 50,085 X 2.13%)
Average royal = $3239 (1.25 X 50085 X 2.13% = $2300)
Average profit = $1906 ($3239 minus $1333)
Hourly rate = $38 ($1906/50.085)

The 1570 coin strategy has the lowest hourly rate but makes the most money.



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