[vpFREE] Re: Pressing your bet

The Kelly system is optimum geometric growth for one hand or infinite hands, the number of hands or events is irrelevant. Also, being able to vary the bet size is very useful, but not a requirement. However, optimum geometric growth is all it does. You could have other goals and those would require other systems. You could for example have a goal to keep your risk of ruin below 10% at all times. This would not be a Kelly system per se, but it would likely satisfy the Kelly requirement that your bet never be greater than the Kelly number.

FPDW Kelly number = 2925
FPDW 10% ROR number = 3525

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
>
> will_gamble2 wrote:
> > Is it +EV to raise the number of hands you play on a multi hand
> > machine as your winnings grow and then come back down at the same
> > increments.
> > For example, you are playing quarters three hands with a buy in of
> > $100 and go to 5 hands at $250 and 10 hands at $500.
> >
> > Is this a better method than staying at 3 hands all the time?
>
> A reality check prompts me to comment on a key limitation under which Kelly betting considerations have limited application to my optimal play choices ...
>
> I can see Kelly coming into play were I looking at an "all you can eat" positive buffet; in other words, where my opportunity for an edge isn't limited.
>
> However, it's generally the case that I am playing under constraints that restrict the amount of play that's appealing. The most frequent constraint is that I'm playing a negative expectation machine, where fixed promotional cash makes the play viable.
>
> In such cases, there's a cap on the desirable total coin-in, and Kelly considerations go out the window. Instead, I'm left looking at options to play through that coin-in in a manner that best optimizes my goals re total play time and bankroll risk exposure.
>
> I'll wistfully contemplate that someone has access to a 100-play FPDW machine (or otherwise has an opportunity with no bound on the positive ER) and can put this discussion into practice.
>
> - H.
>

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