Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Re: [vpFREE] Re: Pressing your bet

Ed wrote:

>If you bet your whole bankroll on any edge, then X percent of the time you
>will bust and then it's impossible to grow the bankroll. That severely
>limits your average bankroll growth.
>
>Kelly seeks to maximize the average rate of growth of a bankroll. In other
>words, if you bet according to Kelly at a +EV game then you will experience
>a greater average bankroll growth than if you bet any other way.

I've heard the phrase that the Kelly Criterion maximizes average
bankroll growth for decades. I understand the formula of the Kelly
Criterion and how to use it. Since I understand that average bankroll
(and, as far as I understand what it means, average bankroll growth,
also) is maximized by betting it all on any advantage and that the
Kelly Criterion is much more conservative than that, I don't
understand what that phrase means. I suspect that no one who uses it
understands it, either, and that it needs revising. If you understood
it, I believe you could express it in different words. You only
repeated the phrase.


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