[vpFREE] Re: An unusual hand

I tend to agree.

There are some situations where volatility is more important that EV. Particularly when there is only a slight difference in EV between two choices.

A good FPDW example is a 3-deuce 5-of-a kind hand. There is a slight difference in EV, depending on whether the pair is higher than 9 or not. But (for the same reasoning you give) the volatility is lower if you just keep the hand as dealt, rather than going for the four deuces.

Though I have to admit that I grit my teeth when I do that.

- - Norma

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <madameguyon@...> wrote:
>
> Since it pays more if it doesn't improve, I'd keep the 4 of a kind.
> I'm too lazy to do the math, but I'm confident that it's the lower
> volatility play. For the same reason, also without having ever done
> the math, I keep an inside straight draw over 3 to a straight flush
> with 2 gaps and a straight penalty in FPDW. I've always disagreed
> with WinPoker's summation of the frequencies of ending hands in full
> pay Kings or Better Joker's Wild, since, with a certain hand in which
> an ace and a joker is against J9s and a joker (the other card has to
> be a 6 that's suited with the ace), the EVs are identical but it has
> the player keep the straight flush draw, whereas, for the sake of
> lower volatility, I'd keep the pair of aces. There's one Deuces Wild
> game in which the royal draw is better for the hand that you
> mentioned, but I can't remember what it is.
>
> >I ran into something interesting while playing "reduced pay deuces wild" with the following payoff table (to 1, with 5 coins in):
> >
> >RF: 800
> >4D: 200
> >WR: 25
> >5K: 15
> >SF: 9
> >4K: 4
> >FH: 4
> >FL: 3
> >ST: 2
> >3K: 1
> >
> >Dealt: 2S, 2C, JS, JD, 10S
> >
> >It turns out that the E.V. of 4.9362 is identical for discarding either the 10S or the JD!
> >
> >This is so surprising that I made a hand calculation:
> >
> >Discarding the 10S:
> >4 cards will give a 5K, and 43 cards a 4K
> >(4*15 + 43*4) / 47 = 232/47 = 4.9362
> >
> >Discarding the JD:
> >5 cards will get a WR; 3 for a SF; 6 for a 4K; 4 for a FL;
> >18 for a ST; and 12 for a 3K
> >(5*25 + 3*9 + 5*4 + 4*3 + 18*2 + 12*1) / 47 = 232/47 = 4.9362
> >
> >Question: Is there any "volatility" issue here that would decide the better discard?
> >
> >Or is this really a flat-ass tie?
> >
> >(As it happened, I discarded the JD and drew a deuce for the wild royal.)
> >
> >Note: For the "full pay" deuces wild payout schedule, there is no tie.
> >Discard the 10: EV = 5.8511
> >Discard the JD: EV = 4.9574
> >
> >- - Norma
> >
>

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