[vpFREE] Re: Dream Card variance PSA

fivespot wrote:

> in Dream Card, you cannot ignore the dealt royal. the cycle on a dealt
> royal on Dream Card BP is a little over 28000 hands, about *23 times*
> as frequent as in other games. it is shorter than the cycle for a
> drawn royal at single-line. while it's lovely to have a realistic
> chance at this superjackpot, when you don't hit it, you will pay
> dearly. a full 1.4% of total return is tied up in that dealt royal

I just realized the dealt RF cycle is different for each game type on
Dream card

because the frequency of the Dream card is not the same for all games.
In my

work below, I have assumed Jacks or Better as the base game.

In my attempt to calculate the dealt RF cycle I got a somewhat lower
number.

I used: 20/52 X 4/51 X 3/50 X 2/49 as the frequency of getting
suited RF

cards in the first four cards. This yields a cycle length of 13,536.25.
Since the

dream card frequency is 50.5% I then multiplied the above cycle by
100/50.5.

The resultant dealt RF cycle is 26804.46 (for Jacks or Better). This
number

must then be reduced because there is a small chance you will get a
dealt RF

on a non-Dream card hand.

Comments/corrections?

G'luck all,

Gamb00ler

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