[vpFREE] Re: Video poker expected value worksheet

some_bitch_already_took_sumorez" wrote:
>
> "But the key thing to realize is that your EV for each hand played, in advance of play, is the same whether that hand should yield a RF or not. Using the overall game ER for that calculation against total planned coin-in will then yield the same result irrespective of denomination."
>
> This I don't understand. The way the formula I've got works is this -- if you're expected to play $20,000 coin-in, you'll be playing many fewer hands, and therefore are less likely to hit a RF on that particular session. I've got the EV of play where you DO hit a RF, the EV of play where you do not, and the percent chance of hitting a RF based on the number of hands.
>
> So, the formula is ((EVrf * %rf) + (EVnrf * %nrf)), where %rf + %nrf = 100% (since you're always either going to hit one or not going to hit one).
>
> It makes sense to me that the lower the denomination you play, the more hands you'll be playing to hit the same coin-in, and therefore the greater your chances of hitting a Royal (and therefore attaining the percentage that includes it).
>
> No?

Ok ... let me start by saying that I'm not interested in tossing the ball back and forth on this one much. So let me try to zero in on the crux of the situation. If I get one solidly across the plate and it gives you food for thought, great!

The formula concept that you outline above is dead on. The problem is that in calculating the EV for those session with a RF you've used 99.54% ER for 9/6 Jacks. That's not the EV for those sessions ... that's the overall ER for all sessions, with and without a RF. Substitute the higher correct value and you're home free.

Calculating that value takes a bit more footwork, but it's not an insurmountable task. (It does need to factor cases in which 1 RF, 2 RF, 3 RF, etc are hit, so is by no means simple ... unless you "back into" the value.)

When you input the proper %, then you'll find that a session of $x coin in will have a fixed EV ... irrespective of the denomination through which the coin is played.

------

So fine ... the formula can work. But, once again, my point is that session EV can be directly calculated from the average game ER (99.54% for 9/6 JB) x the session coin in. Period. There's no need to consider the probability that a given session will have 1 or more RF hits (and sum the EV derived from sessions without a RF hit plus the EV from those with hits).

I expect you'll need to trun that around in your brain a bit before you're ready to accept that.

- H.

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