Friday, October 16, 2009

[vpFREE] Re: Video poker expected value worksheet

"But the key thing to realize is that your EV for each hand played, in advance of play, is the same whether that hand should yield a RF or not. Using the overall game ER for that calculation against total planned coin-in will then yield the same result irrespective of denomination."

This I don't understand. The way the formula I've got works is this -- if you're expected to play $20,000 coin-in, you'll be playing many fewer hands, and therefore are less likely to hit a RF on that particular session. I've got the EV of play where you DO hit a RF, the EV of play where you do not, and the percent chance of hitting a RF based on the number of hands.

So, the formula is ((EVrf * %rf) + (EVnrf * %nrf)), where %rf + %nrf = 100% (since you're always either going to hit one or not going to hit one).

It makes sense to me that the lower the denomination you play, the more hands you'll be playing to hit the same coin-in, and therefore the greater your chances of hitting a Royal (and therefore attaining the percentage that includes it).

No?

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