[vpFREE] Re: Video poker expected value worksheet

will@...> wrote:
> I was going through my offers and such tonight, planning my next
> trip, when I decided it'd be easier if I could get a look at my
> expected returns based on amount of play. I put together an Excel
> worksheet, and I'd love it if you guys could take a look at it to
> see if you notice any obvious mistakes.
>
> http://www.mythlabb.com/Personal/vp_ev.xlsx

A couple of quick observations: It looks like the heart of your EV calculation is to sum:

ER if there's no RF (97.56%) x chance of no RF x coin-in
+ ER otherwise (99.54%) x likelihood of getting at least 1 RF x coin-in.

The second part of the sum is incorrect. 99.54% is the overall ER for the game, not the ER for those session in which at least 1 RF is hit. That percentage would be a good deal higher.

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A hint that this was incorrect is that you're getting different EV's for a fixed amount of coin-in, depending upon the denomination played. EV should reflect a fixed percentage of coin-in and not vary based only upon the wager per hand.

There's a secondary problem in that the probabilities of a session without a RF is incorrectly calculated. It should be [(RFcyc - 1)/RFcyc]^sess_hds.

-> But the key thing to realize is that your EV for each hand played, in advance of play, is the same whether that hand should yield a RF or not. Using the overall game ER for that calculation against total planned coin-in will then yield the same result irrespective of denomination.

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