> > Not reflected in the value is the fact that (I suspect) the Dream > > Card has a co-variance intensifying effect somewhat comparable to
> > a Joker, ensuring multiplay has a much wilder ride than the base
> > variance of 22 would suggest.
nightoftheiguana2000 wrote:
> Possibly, but the dream card is 50-50, at least for jacks, whereas
> the joker is more like 10-90. Dream card significantly increases
> dealt royals, which will significantly decrease the covariance.
That's an interesting point. In fact, it could swing $.25 DC longer-term bankroll swings (100+ play hours) to something much smoother than the equivalent $.50 multiline play. Hour to hour (and most session-to-session) the dips would likely be harsher.
> I think the interesting thing about this game is what it will do to
> floor management. In addition to many gamblers, the floor also does
> not take into consideration the cost of hitting jackpots, so
> they're just going to see a lot of taxables/handpays on a video
> poker game by those who get lucky and either back them off and/or
> downgrade the paytables till their "perceived problem" (too many
> jackpots) goes away.
My preception (possibly mistaken) is that managers are more focused on concern over short-term negative payouts from a game due to a run of hits than on the payouts themselves. In other words, it's when they get a surprising run of jackpots that threaten to turn the hold for the bank negative for the month that they get uncomfortable.
Based on your comments, there's a decent indication that such a run is less likely on this game. Yes, there's a higher percent of return paid off in the form of jackpots, but if OVERALL game variance is lower than the equivalent bet multiline play, then there's less likelihood of such a run. It may be that this game offers a better prospect of consistent house profitability than the standard multiline version.
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