Thursday, December 24, 2009

Re: [vpFREE] Re: Dream Card variance PSA

<nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com> wrote:
> I think it's not that hard to estimate, using the wizard's numbers for the dream card state, and dividing the wins by 2 (since you have to bet double to get the state), I get a variance of about 40. Average that with the variance of the state without the dream card (about 5) and you get a total variance of about 23.

uh, yes, for single-line, Dream Card variance is comparable to the
base game. but there is no such thing as single-line Dream Card. the
unique aspect of Dream Card, variance-wise, is the massive covariance
and in particular the massive dealt royal factor.

ten-play JoB has a variance of 3.72. ten-play Dream Card JoB has a
variance contribution of over 6 from the dealt royal *alone*, and is
probably over 9 overall.

for variance equivalents, $1 10-play JoB and $0.50 10-play DC JoB are
both $50 bets, but normal JoB is going to play like a $2 single-line
game while DC JoB is going to play like a $5 single-line game.

best wishes,

five


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